Bad News For Kamala Harris—Majority Say Economy Heading in Wrong Direction

More than half of Americans believe the economy is heading in the wrong direction, which experts say could cost Kamala Harris come election day.

Despite inflation easing and interest rates starting to come down, polling for Newsweek as of October 6 found that 51 percent of voters think the economy is heading in the wrong direction, while 30 percent believe it is going in the right direction.

Divisions are clear when the answers are separated by voting intention. Some 79 percent of voters who lean Republican are down on the economy—up from 60 percent in September 2023—as opposed to only 23 percent of Democrat-leaning voters currently feeling the same.

This article is part of Newsweek‘s tracker polling, where Americans have been asked questions on topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.

This data is based on polling conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. Altogether, 19 polls were conducted, asking cumulatively 34,800 eligible voters about the key issues of the 2024 election.

Our polling found that the economy is the prime concern for voters heading into November’s election. When asked which issues were most likely to determine their vote, the economy came out on top in every survey conducted since July 2023, regularly being cited by around 60 percent of respondents.

Concerns are shared across party lines. The percentage of Democratic voters who believe they are better off now than three years ago has declined, from 54 percent in September 2023 to 43 percent in October 2024.

Republicans also say they are worse off now under the Biden-Harris government than they were before, although by a considerably bigger margin. In July 2023, 66 percent of Trump voters said they were worse off than when Trump was president. This has jumped to 76 percent this October under the current Biden-Harris administration.

During the 1980 presidential race, Ronald Reagan, when challenging incumbent Jimmy Carter, asked voters question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” And it is this exact quandary that could cost Harris at the polls, Philip van Scheltinga, director of Research at Redfield & Wilton, told Newsweek.

“The 2020 election was very much a referendum on Donald Trump, with ‘not Trump’ winning by a narrow margin. Now, four years later, Americans have experienced what ‘not Trump’ is, regardless of whether it was [President Joe] Biden or Harris, and they can properly compare the two experiences. While polls are showing a tight race between Harris and Trump, the polls are clear on the Reagan question: Americans largely do feel worse off than they did a few years ago, and they do see Bidenomics as a failure.”

Keith Gaddie, professor of political science at Texas Christian University, agrees success for Harris could be dependent on whether voters blame incumbent Joe Biden for their economic troubles and if she, as vice president, will be tarred with the same brush. ”The question mark for Harris is whether, among those who say the economy is headed in the wrong direction, do they ascribe blame to Biden?” he told Newsweek.

The polling also shows that incumbent President Biden’s fiscal policies have proved unpopular with nearly half of all Americans.

Forty-seven percent of Americans believe ‘Bidenomics’ have pushed the economy in the wrong direction as of October, compared to 31 percent who think Biden’s economic policies have pushed the economy in the right direction. Unsurprisingly, Trump voters are considerably more likely to say things are going in the wrong direction (83 percent) than Harris backers (15 percent). These positions have remained largely consistent throughout the polling period.

Why Do Americans Feel Worse Off?

By all means, the economy is in better shape now than it has been in recent years. The coronavirus pandemic upended life as we know it for several years, and the economy moved in tandem with this disruption, from significant rises in global commodity prices and sector-specific price surges caused by a mix of pandemic-related disruptions in supply chains and a substantial shift in consumer demand from services to goods.

However, this recovery hasn’t necessarily translated to better a better financial standing for the average American. Across all age and voter groups, in July 2023, 47 percent of Americans said they were worse off than they had been in July 2020. In October 2024, more than a year later, 48 percent were still answering the same way. Those who said they are doing better stayed the same on 28 percent, although there were fluctuations by a few percentage points throughout the polling period.

“Despite the significant drop in the inflation rate from its mid-2022 peak, many Americans feel worse off financially because the overall price level has risen substantially,” Kuhn explained. “Since the start of the pandemic, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by 21.7 percent from February 2020 to August this year.”

“While wages have mostly kept pace with inflation, the persistent increases in the cost of essentials like housing, food, and transportation have made it difficult for people to adjust,” economist Sam Kuhn told Newsweek. “Even as inflation slows, the elevated price levels continue to erode purchasing power, making it harder for many to maintain their previous standard of living.”

“Wages have—on average—kept up with inflation—they’re as high or higher than they were before the pandemic—but people still feel like despite raises and a historically strong job market, they still can’t afford as much as they might have expected,” Ethan Struby, assistant professor of economics at Carleton College, agreed.

He told Newsweek: “A really concrete example is the housing market. House prices are high, and interest rates are still high. People may be frustrated that despite earning more than they have in the past, they still can’t afford a house.”

Read more of our tracker poll series:

Abortion Overtakes Immigration in Voters’ Minds
Kamala Harris Voters Want Hardline Stance on Immigration
The US Election Will Likely Decide Ukraine’s Fate. Here’s What Voters Think