Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump seems to be getting a big assist from the world’s richest person in the crucial last few days of the 2024 campaign. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is on track to pour more than $130 million into Trump’s campaign effort, and he’s even running a ground operation in Pennsylvania to lure late-breaking swing voters to Trump’s side.
It could backfire. Yahoo Finance surveyed more than 4,000 of our regular users and found that Musk’s involvement with Trump’s campaign could have the opposite of the intended effect.
We asked respondents if Musk’s newfound alliance with Trump would make people more or less likely to vote for the former president. Among all respondents, 25% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 28% said it would make them less likely. That’s a net loss for Trump of 3 percentage points. Forty-six percent said it wouldn’t affect their voting choice either way.
Among people saying they remain undecided, 21% said Musk’s involvement would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 28% said less likely. That’s a 7-point deficit among the types of voters likely to make the difference in a race that’s so tight analysts consider it a coin toss.
This is not a randomized survey, and the Yahoo Finance audience tends to be wealthier, more educated, and older than the electorate overall. But our survey is a large and useful focus group of investors — including some Tesla shareholders — who follow the mercurial Musk closer than others and are likely familiar with his pathbreaking roles at Tesla and other companies, including SpaceX and the social media app X, formerly known as Twitter.
Other surveys find similar results. The Democratic polling group Blueprint recently asked men aged 18 to 29 what they think on a variety of issues. When asked about Elon Musk’s endorsement of Trump, 24% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump and 28% said less likely. Independents, who overlap with swing voters, were slightly more negative toward Musk, with 18% saying his support for Trump makes them more likely to vote for the Republican nominee, and 27% saying less likely.
It’s not that people. like our Yahoo Finance readers, dislike Musk. In our survey, 45% said he’s a benefit to society, while only 23% said he’s a detriment to society. But 28% agreed that Musk is a visionary entrepreneur who has gotten too rich and powerful.
Musk helps run at least six companies, and he’s become an outspoken critic of government overreach, “censorship” meant to block offensive online rhetoric, and social-inclusion policies he derides as “wokeness.” On X, Musk frequently reposts conspiracy theories. He’s become phone pals with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Conservative commentator William Kristol of the Bulwark calls Musk an “oligarch” trying to gain control of the Republican party and, if Trump wins, the whole US government.
Musk’s MAGA activism has made him a divisive figure. As a champion of electric vehicles, Musk was a hero to many liberal climate warriors who saw EVs as a vital tool for lowering carbon emissions and battling climate change. Many of the automaker’s early sales were in the Democratic stronghold of California. Musk says he voted for Democrats in the last two presidential elections, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.
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Biden snubbed Musk early in his presidency, pointedly declining to invite Musk to events hyping EVs, where General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Jeep parent Stellantis (STLA) led the parade. Tesla has been far ahead of traditional automakers on EVs. But unlike the Detroit Three, Tesla is non-unionized, which is why the pro-union Biden froze Tesla out. Musk began to bash Biden publicly, at one point in 2022 calling him a “damp sock puppet in human form.” Musk may now be seeking revenge for Biden’s snub.
Americans increasingly view Musk as a political figure. In a September NBC News poll, Musk’s overall approval rating was 34%. Among Democrats, however, just 6% had a positive view of Musk. Among Republicans, 62% had a positive view. Independents were more negative than the full sample, giving Musk a 31% approval rating.
In the Yahoo Finance survey, Tesla shareholders still seem to be Musk fans. Perhaps that’s not surprising given that Tesla stock is up by more than 800% during the last five years, with many shareholders making boatloads of money. In our survey, 557 respondents said they were Tesla shareholders. Of those, 54% said Musk is a benefit to society, 9 points higher than the overall sample. Only 13% said he’s a detriment to society, 10 points lower than the broader group.
We wondered if Tesla shareholders were irritated with Musk’s foray into politics, and wanted him to get back to running his companies. Some are. Of the Tesla shareholders, 49% said Musk was a welcome new presence in politics, while 41% said he should stick to business. Ten percent said they weren’t sure why Musk was getting into politics.
Musk has also promoted yet another job for himself if Trump wins: Head of a “government efficiency commission” that would make the government run better. Musk hints that the federal government could use some of the medicine he applied to Twitter after he bought it in 2022, such as slashing staff and loosening rules meant to block lies and offensive content. Many users of the site, now X, complain about rampant propaganda and a pro-Trump bent. X’s value is now a fraction of what Musk paid for it two years ago.
We asked the YF audience whether they thought Musk would be able to improve the government if he tried to do so. The overall group was split, with 42% saying Musk would be able to make the government better, and 41% saying he’d make it worse. Twelve percent thought he wouldn’t make a difference, with the rest unsure.
Tesla shareholders were more optimistic, with 48% saying Musk would make the government better, 29% saying he’d make it worse and 15% saying no difference.
Majorities in both groups suspect self-interest on Musk’s part. In the overall group, 61% said Musk would exploit his role in remaking government to benefit his own companies, which face a wide variety of federal regulations. Among Tesla shareholders, 57% thought Musk would use his role as a Trump adviser to benefit his own companies.
Maybe that’s why some people like the guy: He’s always seeking an edge.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @rickjnewman.
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