Some caution might be good for markets

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

New highs, once again
U.S. stocks continued rising on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at new highs for the second consecutive day. Asia-Pacific markets rallied on Wednesday, led by Chinese stocks. The Chinese offshore yuan is trading at 7.0111 against the U.S. dollar, its strongest since May 2023.

China needs fiscal spending
The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday announced a series of rate cuts. While analysts think this move may mark the end of China’s deflationary streak, many think monetary policy is not enough. “The most likely path to reflation, in our view, is through fiscal spending on housing,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.

Consumer’s not confident
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August. September’s figure comes in lower than the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 104 and is the biggest month-on-month drop in three years. Respondents saying jobs were “hard to get” rose to 18.3% from 16.8%.

How much will oil demand grow?
Oil demand will experience “robust medium-term growth,” reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029 from 102.2 million barrels per day in 2023, according to OPEC’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report. Not all analysts agree with that forecast. The International Energy Agency thinks oil demand will level off at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

[PRO] ‘Don’t fight the Fed’
The notion of aligning investment strategies with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory dominated in the decade after the 2007 to 2008 global financial crisis. With the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point last week, Barclays and Citi analysts turn bullish on these stocks, advising investors, “Don’t fight the Fed.”

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 from 105.6, its biggest drop since August 2021 when inflation was starting to ignite.

Consumers, especially those between 35-54 and earning less than $50,000, were worried about jobs and inflation. Compared with August, more respondents in September said jobs were “hard to get” and scarcer. Inflation worries also resurfaced, with the 12-month outlook rising to 5.2%, up from 4.9% in August.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, in an interview with CNBCTV-18, also expressed doubts on the state of the economy. “Markets are pricing things like they’re going to be great. Put me on the cautious side of that one,” he said.

While inflation appears to be mostly tamed, at least by the measure of most Fed officials, Dimon thinks the economy might be dragged down because “geopolitics is getting worse … there is chance for accidents in energy supply.”

Still, investors seemed to shrug off the air of pessimism. The S&P added 0.25%, extending its streak of closing at a new high. The Dow rose 0.2% to, likewise, hit a record level. Boosted by Nvidia’s 4% jump, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.56%.

Perhaps some downbeat data and stern reminders about potential risks consoled investors that the recent highs of stock indexes were not driven by irrational exuberance. It’s hard to prove this, of course. Markets could just be disregarding warnings about the economy.

But the fact that stocks continue rising even amid uneven economic data suggests the upward trajectory in markets is level-headed, for now. As Evercore ISI senior managing director Julian Emanuel pointed out, “We would be more concerned if we started hearing everything’s great [or] everything’s roses.”

– CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Brian Evans and Hakyung Kim contributed to this story.